Well how about that week. A perfect THREE AND ZERO against the spread! The first game on the slate I chose was Jim Harbaugh’s coaching debut with Michigan against the Utes of Utah. Utah was a -5.5 point favorite in the game and won 24-17, thanks in large part to Michigan’s horrendous offensive play.
Game two was a showdown against the 2014 MAC East champions, Bowling Green Falcons against the surging Vols of Tennessee. After a fast start to the game the Vols defense let the Falcons get back into the game. After a lightning delay, the Vols came out swinging and outscored the Falcons 28 to 3 for the cover (-20.5). The Game of the Week pick featured the No.1 Ohio State Buckeyes against the team that upsetted them a season ago, the unranked Hokies of Virginia Tech. The game in the first half was back and forth, but a Madden like spin move by Braxton Miller, put the Hokies out of reach and the Buckeyes covered the -10.5 spread winning 42-24. A successful week one is in the books, lets keep the money train rollin’ for week 2.
2015 ATS record
3-0 (1-0 Game of the Week picks)
Overall record ATS
33-17 (13-2 Game of the Week picks)
No.21 Missouri (1-0) vs. Arkansas State (0-1)
Date: Sept. 12
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Current Line: Arkansas State +11
The Story
The Tigers did everything right against Southeast Missouri, but score. The Tigers gained 407 yards (319 passing/88 rushing) but managed to only put 34 points against a weak FCS Ohio Valley Conference team. The huge area of concern for the Tigers comes from under center. Junior QB Maty Mauk wasn’t impressive at all in the season debut. Mauk went 12 for 22 with two touchdowns, a pick and a quarterback rating of 60.8. Freshman Drew Lock looked more poised and in control as he went 6 for 10 for 138 yards and a touchdown. Last season Mauk finished 11th in the SEC among qualified passers with only 6.4 yards per attempt. Missouri’s head coach Gary Pinkel has a lot to think about as many Mizzou fans are calling for Lock to start. The one thing that looked good for the Tigers was their defense. The Tigers D limited the Red hawks to 191 yards, limiting the Red hawks passing game to just 56 yards.
The Red Wolves of Arkansas State did exactly what every college football analyst predicted…get destroyed by the revamped No.8 USC Trojans. A 55-6 loss was handed to the Red wolves. Although it was a disappointing showing, the Red wolves did put up an impressive 401 yards on offense with 208 of them on the ground by committee (three running backs/ one quarterback). Any time a non-Power Five-conference team puts up those numbers against a Power Five Conference team you might be looking at the Red wolves as possible ATS winners, but as Lee Corso says “Not so fast my friend,” USC’s defense is among the worst in the PAC-12 and has been since 2014.
Trends
Missouri is 4-1 ATS in the last three years being a 10.5 to 21 point favorite
Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS in the last three years as a 10.5 to 21 point underdog
Missouri is 10-0 ATS in road games and 5-0 as a road favorite in the last three years
Arkansas State is 8-4 ATS in home games in the last three years.
Missouri is 3-0 ATS in road games where the total is between 56.5 and 63
Arkansas State is 0-3 ATS in home games where the total is between 56.5 and 63
Missouri is 0-1 ATS this season
Arkansas State is 0-1 ATS this season
The Pick
Missouri’s offense isn’t all that impressive that’s a given, but the defense is outstanding especially against the pass. The Red wolves do not have a great pass attack, nor running game, as there is no legit back for Arkansas State. Because of the Tigers defense I believe the Tigers will cover easily.
Take Mizzou -11
No.21 Missouri 24, Arkansas State 6
PASADENA, CA – DECEMBER 06: Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Mark Sanchez of the USC Trojans talk during warm ups before the game against the UCLA Bruins on December 6, 2008 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Steve Sarkisian;Mark Sanchez
Idaho vs. No.8 USC
Date: Sept. 12
Time: 8:00 EST
Current Line: USC -43.5
The Story
As mentioned above the Trojans took care of business against the Red wolves winning 55-6 and covering the -27 spread. Cody Kessler threw for 236 yards and four touchdowns while Tre Maddon rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown. The offense showed up for the red and yellow, but the defense continues to be missing.
Idaho lost to Ohio 28-45 to open the season, losing the +6.5 ATS. The Vandals gave up 490 yards (286 passing/ 208 rushing) on their home turf to the Bobcats. Idaho’s Matt Linehan went 36 for 48 with 297 yards, one touchdown and two picks. Too say the least, the Vandals weren’t impressive at all.
Trends
Idaho is 0-3 ATS in the last three years as an underdog of 31 or more points
USC is 0-0 ATS in the last three years as a favorite of 31 or more points
Idaho is 1-5 ATS in the last three years as a road underdog of 21.5 or more
USC is 9-5 ATS in home games in the last three years
Idaho is 4-8 ATS in the last three years in road games
USC is 0-1 ATS against Idaho since 1992
The Pick
USC needs to show that they are a force to be wrecken with and are clear FBS playoff contenders. The defense needs to show up and I feel this is the game they will do it. I usually hate taking favorites of 31 points or more, but this is a sexy pick. Trojans cover
USC -43.5
Idaho 10, No.8 USC 62
Game of the Week
No.19 Oklahoma vs. No.22 Tennessee
Date: Sept. 12
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Current Line: Oklahoma -1
The Story
In the battle of two schools who need a big win we have Bob Stoops Oklahoma Sooners taking a trip out east to visit Butch Jones’ Tennessee Vols in Knoxville, TN. The Sooners finished last season poorly, but gained a lot of momentum after their rout of Akron 41-3. Quarterback Baker Mayfield went 23 for 33 with 388 yards and three touchdowns. As a team the Sooners threw for 439 yards. The rushing attack was unimpressive with seven players gaining only 100 yards. The Sooners defense held the Zips to just 226 yards despite letting the Zips have a possession time of 32 minutes.
As for the Vols, the main area of concern is their pass defense. Last week the Vols gave up 433 passing yards to Bowling Green, 424 of those to Matt Johnson. The Falcons had their way with Tennessee’s secondary all afternoon. The biggest key for the Vols will come from their running game. Running backs Alvin Kamara and Jalen Hurd rushed for a combined 267 yards with five touchdowns. Also starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs gained 89 yards on the ground with a touchdown on his own. Tennessee’s head coach Butch Jones will meet OU’s Bob Stoops for the second time and will try to avenge his 29-27 loss while head coach of Cincinnati.
Trends
Oklahoma is 0-1 ATS over the last three years when the line is +3 to -3
Tennessee is 2-2 ATS over the last three years when the line is +3 to -3
Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in September games over the last three years
Tennessee is 4-4 ATS in September games over the last three years
Oklahoma is 2-0 ATS in games against the SEC over the last three years
Tennessee is 0-1 ATS in games against the Big 12 over the last three years
The Pick
This is going to be a shootout by all means. I fully expect the game to be tight until the second half when Stoops passing attack dismantles the resurging Tennessee program. Sooners with the cover.
Oklahoma -1
No.19 Oklahoma 45, No.23 Tennessee 31
sean mcdermott 